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110618 update on Cruz vs. Beto

110618 update on Cruz vs. Beto

Here are the early voting totals and some voting history in Comal County, TX.

2012 U.S. Senate …   Ted Cruz       38k,    Paul Sadler    11k,   Other 2k

2014 TX Governor …  Greg Abbott    27k,   Wendy Davis    7k,   Other 1k

2016 U.S. President … Donald Trump 45k,   Hillary Clinton 14k,   Other 3k

2018 U.S. Senate …     Ted Cruz               ,   Beto O’Rourke      , Other

Early voting statewide was 39% of registered voters in 2012, then 19% in 2014 and 46% in 2016. This year, it’s 40% statewide and 48% in Comal County. Number of early votes in Comal County was 48k, so already far more than 2014 total vote and on track to surpass both 2012 and 2016.

I find it hard to believe that the uptick is all Democrats. If they had the votes to win TX, then why would they endure being “oppressed” as they see it?

Most likely explanation is that both sides are energized, which means Blue wave is likely blunted while Red wave is more plausible than the talking heads have thought it was.

We’ll see in a few hours. Will update as soon as Comal County results become known.

 

ERpundit – 11/06/18

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