Final results in Comal County, TX.
2012 U.S. Senate … Ted Cruz 38k, Paul Sadler 11k, Other 2k
2014 TX Governor … Greg Abbott 27k, Wendy Davis 7k, Other 1k
2016 U.S. President … Donald Trump 45k, Hillary Clinton 14k, Other 3k
2018 U.S. Senate … Ted Cruz 44k, Beto O’Rourke 17k, Other –
Well, Cruz pretty much maintained his margin, 72% vs. 74% last time. Both parties’ vote count went up 6k from Cruz’s 2012 Senate race. He won statewide in 2012 by 56% vs. 40%.
For a simple projection, let’s say half the state has no change in margin (74%-Cruz counties breaking even in the vote count increase), and the other half experiences the same pro-rata vote increases as Comal County. That half would have been 18 for Cruz and 29 for Sadler in order to produce the overall 56-40 in 2012, so the 29 would become 45 and the 18 would become 21. Overall 65-62 for Cruz this time, or 51%.
ERpundit – 11/06/18