110618 Final update on Cruz vs. Beto

110618 Final update on Cruz vs. Beto

Final results in Comal County, TX.

2012 U.S. Senate …   Ted Cruz         38k,   Paul Sadler     11k,   Other 2k

2014 TX Governor …   Greg Abbott     27k,   Wendy Davis     7k,   Other 1k

2016 U.S. President … Donald Trump 45k,   Hillary Clinton 14k,   Other 3k

2018 U.S. Senate …     Ted Cruz         44k,   Beto O’Rourke 17k, Other   –

Well, Cruz pretty much maintained his margin, 72% vs. 74% last time. Both parties’ vote count went up 6k from Cruz’s 2012 Senate race. He won statewide in 2012 by 56% vs. 40%.

For a simple projection, let’s say half the state has no change in margin (74%-Cruz counties breaking even in the vote count increase), and the other half experiences the same pro-rata vote increases as Comal County. That half would have been 18 for Cruz and 29 for Sadler in order to produce the overall 56-40 in 2012, so the 29 would become 45 and the 18 would become 21. Overall 65-62 for Cruz this time, or 51%.

We’ll see.


ERpundit – 11/06/18

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