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042218 Framework for evaluating probable cause in the Russia-Trump collusion investigation

042218 Framework for evaluating probable cause in the Russia-Trump collusion investigation

I think the evidence shows overwhelmingly that there was never any shred of probable cause to launch the Russia-Trump collusion investigation.  And … therefore … it was (and is) a political witch hunt in gross violation of our laws and rights.

Wow, you might say, that’s a bold claim!  Well, let’s evaluate the probable cause, one piece at a time, using the following framework:

  • Is there probable cause to even suspect foul play? That is, to be shocked by the election outcome?
  • Starting with the old axiom of MOTIVE – MEANS – OPPORTUNITY, does the MEANS alleged by the government’s theory show probable cause to investigate Russia?
  • Does the OPPORTUNITY alleged by the government’s theory show probable cause to investigate Russia?
  • Does the MOTIVE alleged by the government’s theory show probable cause to investigate Russia?
  • Does the MOTIVE alleged by the government’s theory show probable cause to investigate Trump?
  • Does the government’s target (Russia) match the eyewitness description?
  • Does the government’s behavior (FBI, et. al.) match the government’s words?
  • Is there an alternate explanation more plausible than the government’s theory? (Well, DUH!)

I hope you’ll still want to digest and test my reasoning, so this isn’t really a spoiler, but … the answers I come up with to those eight questions above are NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO and YES.

My guess is that the importance of probable cause is taught in law school.  It’s probably in the FBI and DOJ training manuals.  With the preponderance of Representatives and Senators having legal backgrounds, one would think those exercising oversight of the government’s conduct are familiar with the duty to show probable cause.

Comey, McCabe, Rosenstein, Lynch, FISA court judges, etc., would all have had a duty to show probable cause.  Obama would have had a duty to show probable cause (and thus “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed”).  Mueller would have had a duty to verify the showing of probable cause when he took over the investigation.  Stay tuned, we’ll see if these folks did their duty.

 

ERpundit  –  04/22/2018

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